Authors :
Presenting Author: Elizabeth Juarez-Colunga, PhD – University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus
Karen Kanaster, MS – University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus
Jacqueline French, MD – Department of Neurology and Comprehensive Epilepsy Center, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, NYU Langone Health
Giovani Silva, PhD – University of Lisbon
Rationale:
A better understanding of epileptic seizure occurrence is needed to design new interventions that can alleviate the challenges that epilepsy imposes on individuals with the condition. Clustering of seizures is a common feature in patients with epilepsy, occurring when a patient is more likely to experience subsequent seizures following an initial seizure episode. Methods:
We propose a Hawkes process to address the clustering of seizure events within individuals. The fundamental feature of the Hawkes process is that the intensity function is accelerated or excited every time an event occurs. This is achieved through an intensity function composed of the sum of a background intensity and an excitation intensity function. We propose a model for epileptic seizures in the Human Epilepsy Project (HEP), where the intensity function consists of the sum of a Weibull background intensity function and a gamma excitation intensity.Results:
The background intensity function is decreasing over time. A Hawkes model allows for clustering of seizures and demonstrates excitation seizures per original seizure are about 19 on average, and seizures are generated through self-excitation with probability 95%.Conclusions:
The analysis demonstrates that it is feasible to use a Hawkes process to model clustering of epileptic seizures within individuals.Funding:
This work has been supported by the National Institute Of Neurological Disorders And Stroke of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01NS133040.